Political data expert and regular Capitol Weekly contributor Paul Mitchell joins us for a look at the most competitive congressional districts in California. The race for control of Congress is tight, and these districts could decide which party holds the House in 2025. And he tells us which polls to watch (and which to ignore) and makes his prediction in the Kamala Harris - Donald Trump race. Plus - Who Had the Worst Week in California Politics Episode Notes: 4:00 CA 22 - Salas v. Valadao 11:47 CA 3 - Kiley v. Morse 14:44 Brutal abortion ad 17:46 CA 27 - Whiteside v. Garcia 21:44 CA 47 - Min v. Baugh 26:59 CA 41 - Calvert v. Rollins 29:07 CA 9 - Gray v. Duarte 33:49 What are good polls to follow? 35:38 The prediction markets 38:29 Polls to avoid 41:31 Could hurricanes affect the presidential race? 42:50 On the spot: Presidential prediction 45:18 First gubernatorial debate of the 2026 campaign 50:01 #WWCA
Political data expert and regular Capitol Weekly contributor Paul Mitchell joins us for a look at the most competitive congressional districts in California. The race for control of Congress is tight, and these districts could decide which party holds the House in 2025. And he tells us which polls to watch (and which to ignore) and makes his prediction in the Kamala Harris- Donald Trump race. Plus - Who Had the Worst Week in California Politics
4:00 CA 22 - Salas v. Valadao
11:47 CA 3 - Kiley v. Morse
14:44 Brutal abortion ad
17:46 CA 27 - Whiteside v. Garcia
21:44 CA 47 - Min v. Baugh
26:59 CA 41 - Calvert v. Rollins
29:07 CA 9 - Gray v. Duarte
33:49 What are good polls to follow?
35:38 The prediction markets
38:29 Polls to avoid
41:31 Could hurricanes affect the presidential race?
42:50 On the spot: Presidential prediction
45:18 First gubernatorial debate of the 2026 campaign
50:01 #WWCA
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Capitol Weekly Podcast theme is "Pickin' My Way" by Eddie Lang
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